Trump's 'America First' Policy: Is China the Real Winner? (2026)

A year after Donald Trump's return to the White House, a global survey reveals a surprising shift in global perception. While Trump's 'Make America Great Again' agenda was expected to boost American influence, the survey indicates that the world perceives China as the beneficiary of Trump's policies. The survey, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, surveyed 26,000 respondents across 21 countries, including the US, China, and several European nations. It found that the majority of respondents believe China's global influence will significantly grow over the next decade, with varying degrees of optimism across different regions. For instance, 83% of South Africans, 72% of Brazilians, and 63% of Turks anticipate China's increasing influence. In contrast, only 54% of Americans and 51% of Indians share this sentiment. The survey also highlights a shift in alliances and perceptions. Europeans are increasingly supportive of rearmament, no longer viewing the US as a reliable ally. Russians now see the EU as a greater threat than the US, and Ukrainians are seeking support from Brussels rather than Washington. These findings suggest a complex geopolitical landscape where traditional alliances are being redefined. The survey's authors, including Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and historian Timothy Garton Ash, argue that Trump's actions, such as his involvement in Venezuela and territorial ambitions in Greenland, have inadvertently contributed to China's rise as a global power. They caution that Europe may be squeezed or ignored in this new geopolitical order, urging European leaders to recognize the reality of these changes and adapt their strategies accordingly.

Trump's 'America First' Policy: Is China the Real Winner? (2026)
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